Intelligence Validation

Thoughts on Analysis: Expression of Probability in Intelligence Work

Almost every intelligence organisation seems to employ a different method to express probability as part of their intelligence processes. Probability being the level of confidence the analyst has in relation to each piece of intelligence, resultant hypotheses or the overall assessment. Not surprisingly, any ambiguity in the expression of probability has an impact on the [...]

Thoughts on Analysis: Classification, Accuracy, Reliability and Distribution

Let us clarify the relationship between classification, accuracy of information, reliability of source and the distribution of intelligence. There is often confusion over these four aspects of our work as many people are tempted to link them together. For example, I often hear the view that top secret information is, due to its high classification, [...]

Thoughts on Analysis – Validation of Intelligence

Is there a case within the Intelligence Cycle for a validation phase? I hear it argued that the Intelligence Cycle lacks depth due to its simplistic structure and its four basic stages of Direction, Collection, Processing and Dissemination. Others maintain that its simplicity is its strength as long as its employment is controlled and managed [...]