The intelligence cycle is a great piece of doctrine and one which has kept us, in the intelligence business, on the straight and narrow for so long. It has served us well and I’m sure will continue to do so into the future.
There are elements of it though that need examination past the obvious. The first and most important point is that the cycle must be managed as a holistic entity and not as the four separate phases of direction, collection, processing and dissemination. The intelligence cycle should represent a seamless thought process with no beginning or end. It fails as soon as compartmentalisation occurs.
The second most important aspect of the intelligence cycle concerns the intelligence analyst; the thought powerhouse of the whole process. It can be tempting to think that the intelligence analyst’s activities are confined to the processing phase of the intelligence cycle, or even to just the analysis function within processing. Nothing should be further from the truth.
Let me just state at this stage that not everybody has inside them the makings of a good intelligence analyst. That is just a fact. And it is certainly not a purely intellectual issue…it is something to do with how the brain is wired. It can be taught and honed by training, but essentially for some people it just comes more naturally. The ingredients of a good analyst are a debatable subject, but would include obsessive, tenacious, inquisitive, logical, the ability to see all points of view and to be able to discern patterns and anomalies in vast amounts of information. Perhaps a character trait to succeed against all the odds…
So what does this analyst bring to the party? Right from the start the analyst should be involved to identify the problem, the context and the scope. All too often we receive poor direction from our hierarchy, but in reality this is our failing as the intelligence expert; we need to bring ideas and advice to the table from the outset. Remember the whole intelligence plan is based on direction, if the direction is wrong, there is a high likelihood the mission will fail.
There is nothing the collection agencies like better than collecting more and more information; it is what they do and they all think they do it the best. Nothing wrong with that, but success is dependent on a well formulated collection plan, driven by indicators and warnings and a sound understanding of source capabilities. This is a job for one of your top analysts.
Processing is the phase where the analyst brings to bear their full suite of analytical techniques. Truly great thoughts though only tend to occur when the hierarchical structure is removed and we enter a flat world environment. Otherwise, Patrick Lencioni’s Five Dysfunctions of the Team hold as well for an intelligence section as any other:
- Absence of trust—unwilling to be vulnerable within the group
- Fear of conflict—seeking artificial harmony over constructive passionate debate
- Lack of commitment—feigning buy-in for group decisions creates ambiguity throughout the organisation
- Avoidance of accountability—ducking the responsibility to call peers on counterproductive behaviour sets low standards
- Inattention to results—focusing on personal success, status and ego before team success
Finally, the dissemination phase presents an opportunity to produce applied intelligence output that fits exactly the requirements of the customer. This can only be achieved by an intelligence expert who has been intimately involved in the process from the start.
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