Almost every intelligence organisation seems to employ a different method to express probability as part of their intelligence processes. Probability being the level of confidence the analyst has in relation to each piece of intelligence, resultant hypotheses or the overall assessment. Not surprisingly, any ambiguity in the expression of probability has an impact on the [...]
Let us clarify the relationship between classification, accuracy of information, reliability of source and the distribution of intelligence. There is often confusion over these four aspects of our work as many people are tempted to link them together. For example, I often hear the view that top secret information is, due to its high classification, [...]
The intelligence cycle is a great piece of doctrine and one which has kept us, in the intelligence business, on the straight and narrow for so long. It has served us well and I'm sure will continue to do so into the future. There are elements of it though that need examination past the obvious. [...]
Oft maligned and ignored, the humble collator, day after day, feeds our intelligence databases In some organisations the collator posts are treated as a rite of passage for your aspiring analyst - learning the ropes from the shop floor upwards. Other places, they are seen as dead-end and never-ending jobs for those who will never [...]
"Applied intelligence exploits relevant basic and current intelligence to meet the specific requirements of and to provide direct support to the decision-making process" This is in contrast to: Basic intelligence - reference material for planning and provides the background to a potential adversary and the operational environment. It embraces issues such as the organisation, doctrine, [...]
Is there a case within the Intelligence Cycle for a validation phase? I hear it argued that the Intelligence Cycle lacks depth due to its simplistic structure and its four basic stages of Direction, Collection, Processing and Dissemination. Others maintain that its simplicity is its strength as long as its employment is controlled and managed [...]
It is probably fair to say that most intelligence professionals view the intelligence cycle as central to their work, and as a consequence, the ‘cycle’ is the subject of much discussion as it will be the lynchpin to most complex intelligence operations. Such debate should be viewed as a good thing, constantly challenging us to [...]
