Doctrine is never the most exciting of subjects, but spare me a few moments and let me justify your time. I know there are many with the view that intelligence work is more about the art of common sense than a science of deduction. There are indeed people in the intelligence business who do not refer to or even know about, in some cases, the intelligence cycle, or ever complete an intelligence collection plan, for example.
Although I respect those views, I cannot help but feel that intelligence work is reduced as a profession by such an approach. We already suffer more than many disciplines from the ‘professional amateur’, who offers an input to the intelligence picture from the morning’s newspaper (Perhaps a bit harsh, but nevertheless true in many circumstances I have encountered). Even many intelligence practitioners survive on only a rudimentary understanding of the subject. Marketing, sales, communications or logistics are not run in this way, so let me make a case for better professionalism within the intelligence specialisation.
An example of great thinking, I believe, is the concept of Applied Intelligence, which should serve as a constant reminder that intelligence needs to be forward-leaning and client-focussed. I define it as follows:
“Applied intelligence exploits relevant basic and current intelligence to meet the specific requirements of and to provide direct support to the decision-making process”
Bear in mind, Basic Intelligence is the reference material and context for planning as it provides the background to competitors, the industry and the operating environment, whilst Current Intelligence seeks to identify and clarify the present situation. In its simplest form, we have the intelligence picture as at yesterday (basic intelligence), the picture as at today (current intelligence) and the predicted intelligence picture of tomorrow (applied intelligence).
Why is this useful? Well, in almost any situation, a structured approach helps to prevent the analyst forecasting the future before understanding today, and before that, having an appreciation of the past. It should be easy and straight-forward, but how many times do we get this thinking wrong? It seems to be the default setting for any military operation, and in the commercial world many examples spring to mind – Tesco’s jaunt into the USA and Sainsbury’s attempt to bring western style supermarket shopping to Egypt.
The reverse is also true, in that it is too easy for the intelligence focus to be concentrated on the basic and current intelligence picture alone, which results in the boardroom or commander only ever being told about events that have already happened. Interesting, no doubt, but not the best basis for planning future strategy.
Doctrine, in this case Applied Intelligence, saves the specialist from predicting the future without knowing the context or stops him focussing solely on the past. It all sounds simple, but these messages can be quickly lost when faced with large complex fast-moving scenarios.
So as a footnote to this discussion, if you are unaware of Applied Intelligence then is it time to find out more? Also could there be other doctrine out there that may be useful to delivering better intelligence?
Further thoughts on these ideas:
http://qro-global.co.uk/future-planning-in-uncertain-environments-mining-world-article-august-2014/
http://qro-global.co.uk/intelligence-led-investigations-part-two/
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