How can it be that we see the world so differently? Even when we are on the same team, working for the same people and aiming for the same objectives, we can witness the very same event, but come away with a different interpretation of what just happened. This is described by Sir John Lubbock as follows –
“In this world we do not see things as they are. We see them as we are, because what we see depends mainly on what we are looking for”
I’ve even had it described to me as “…there is no reality, just perceptions of reality”. This latter quote is particularly difficult to accept in the intelligence profession, as we pride ourselves on being able to get to the truth of a matter and then to draw from it sound judgements and assessments.
A major influence that distorts judgement is bias. These are the personal, cultural and organisational influences that affect how we see the world, and also the tricks our brains play whilst processing information. People can be surprised particularly by our brain’s reflex biases as they make us behave less rationally than we think we do. Biases cause inconsistencies in the interpretation of facts and need to be highlighted through awareness training and the use of analytical countering techniques.
Another defining factor in this debate is the immediacy and impact of the threat; clearly there are situations where the outcomes have the potential to be grave indeed and it is difficult for those in close proximity to see past the direct action necessary to manage the situation. Clear thinking and a wider perspective in these circumstances, understandably, are difficult to achieve. At times such as these, although the person on the ground will have a distinctive, even perhaps a unique, perspective, they will often struggle to know what and why events are happening in a broader context.
At the other end of the spectrum to the tactical view are the analysts, detached from the immediate pressures and exposure, making assessments from afar. Certainly it could be said that they have the right environment for analytical assessment work, and that they are well placed for understanding and implementing business-wide values and objectives. They probably will also have to hand extensive intelligence collection capability.
So, the choice should be obvious that the analyst sitting in the corporate headquarters, perhaps in New York or London and well away from the crisis, is the person most likely to have the clearest perspective and therefore to create the understanding needed to drive business decision-making.
Well… perhaps, but I’m not sure it is so clear. Let us not underestimate the importance of ground truth. Just understanding the terrain in which an incident is occurring, let alone having a working appreciation of the culture, society and the norm on the streets is essential to the analyst. Local knowledge can be everything in creating a true understanding.
A balance is required to achieve better understanding. Even as intelligence specialists, all working fundamentally to the same principles, our judgement is clouded by our proximity to the threat, its potential impact on us, the pressures we are under, the type and reach of our information sources and, by no means least, our biases. It is small wonder this is challenging as it requires not only that all information is validated for accuracy, but that the influences on the observer are also analysed for their impact.
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